Lisbon Treaty rejection may affect enlargement process in Southeastern Europe

30/06/2008

The Irish "no" vote on the Lisbon Treaty poses tough questions about EU enlargement -- which may have an impact on Southeastern European countries. However, optimistic voices are coming from Brussels.

By Zoran Nikolovski for Southeast European Times in Skopje -- 30/06/08

Ireland rejected the Lisbon Treaty in a referendum on June 12th. [Getty Images]

The Reform Treaty, better known as the Lisbon Treaty, has become a milestone for the EU and also for the Southeastern European region due to its impact on the enlargement policy of the Union. While EU leaders are preoccupied with how to breathe life into this crucial treaty, the countries that aspire to become full-fledged members are worried about the outcome of the battle. On June 12th, EU member Ireland voted "no" on the treaty 53% to 47% -- a much wider margin than had been expected -- plunging the EU into a new crisis.

The Lisbon Treaty, which was signed in December 2007, will replace the draft European constitution, which voters in France and the Netherlands rejected in 2005. The treaty was to open the door to new members because under the current arrangement stipulated in the Nice Agreement, the EU and its institutions can include 27 members at most. If any of the 27 EU member states fails to ratify the treaty, it cannot enter into force.

Different views

After Ireland's rejection, the EU's Slovenian presidency called for calm and a period of consideration. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the Lisbon Treaty was still "alive" and urged other countries to continue ratifying it as 18 EU members already have done. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose country takes the helm of the EU on July 1st, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel strove to support Barroso's stance.

When it comes to the enlargement policy governed by the treaty, different voices are coming from Brussels and other EU capitals. European Parliament President Hans-Gert Poettering said the Irish "no" meant further expansion of the 27-nation Union was impossible for now, with the possible exception of Croatia.

The members of the European Parliament, the AP reported, stated that any further enlargement of the EU was "barely conceivable" without the Lisbon Treaty.

"Despite current difficulties related to the Lisbon Treaty, the [EU] sticks to its word concerning the EU perspective of Southeastern Europe, that is, the Western Balkans and Turkey," EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said. [Getty Images]

However, EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said that the Irish veto did not diminish the bloc's commitment to admitting new members from the Balkans and Turkey. "Despite current difficulties related to the Lisbon Treaty, the [EU] sticks to its word concerning the EU perspective of Southeastern Europe, that is, the Western Balkans and Turkey," Rehn said to Reuters.

On a similar track was Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, who also excluded any changes to the enlargement process. "The outcome of the Irish referendum in no way changes the enlargement policy. The EU unanimously decided to invite the countries of the Western Balkans to take membership, so there is no doubt about that," Rupel said.

The EU undertook obligations towards the Western Balkan countries at the 2003 Thessaloniki Summit, where Union heads of state and government adopted an open-door policy.

Despite Rehn and Rupel's positions, the Irish rejection may delay the enlargement policy. "The Irish 'no' to the [treaty] means it cannot enter into force from the start of next year as earlier planned," Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said.

Speaking during a visit to the Czech Republic, French President Nicolas Sarkozy also stressed: "In order to open up to the Balkans, to Croatia, we need the Treaty of Lisbon."

The effect on Turkey, Croatia and Macedonia

Three candidate countries -- Macedonia, Turkey and Croatia -- are most interested in what will happen after the Irish veto. Croatia and Turkey are in the process of negotiations for entering the EU, while Macedonia is waiting to start talks. All of the Western Balkan countries, except Montenegro, have signed the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU, which is viewed as the first step towards Union accession.

Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader (in London on June 18th) said he was optimistic that the EU pave the way for Croatia's admission. [Getty Images]

The main impact of the Irish vote on enlargement may be to reinforce those who argue that Turkey is too large and culturally different to join the bloc. According to French Agriculture Minister Michel Barnier, the referendum showed that citizens were afraid of an EU "without borders and limits".

Still, on June 18th, the accession negotiations between the EU and Turkey moved on to include the areas of corporate law and intellectual property law.

Croatia, well advanced in the process with prospects for opening more and more negotiating chapters of the European common law, is expected to conclude its negotiations next year.

The EU and Croatia also opened two new chapters in the accession negotiations after the failure of the treaty in Ireland. The talks between the EU and Croatia have gone ahead by including freedom of movement for workers, as well as social policy and employment.

Macedonia is waiting to open negotiations this autumn. The move will depend on its internal political developments after its poorly organised June 1st elections and the fate of the Lisbon Treaty itself.

Reactions in the region are in line with the idea of keeping the treaty alive.

Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader said last week that, after his talks in Brussels this week and meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, he was optimistic that the EU would find a way to admit Croatia, regardless of Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty.

"The values of the Union, which are incorporated in the Macedonian Action Plan, are not in crisis and should be fulfilled. For us, it is important to become a state with European standards, and accession is only a form," said former Macedonian Foreign Minister Slobodan Casule.

In the optimistic view, the Western Balkan countries should not worry too much about Lisbon Treaty-related events but should continue their reforms. Still, it is certain that there will be some delay until Brussels finds a solution.