Serbian elections viewed as a crossroads

08/05/2008

Serbs will choose on Sunday whether they want to speed up EU integration or keep the focus on Kosovo.

By Igor Jovanovic for Southeast European Times in Belgrade – 08/05/08

The Serbian Radical Party is expected to win 91 of the 250 seats in parliament Sunday. [Davor Konjikusic]

As campaigning in Serbia winds down, voters are polarised between the far-right Serbian Radical Party and the coalition around President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party.

While the Democrats advocate Serbia's rapid accession to the EU as a priority, the Radicals say that the most important thing for Serbia is to keep Kosovo part of Serbia and that the journey to the EU should be postponed if it means abandoning the province, which declared independence on February 17th.

The Serbian government collapsed on March 8th due to discord between Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica and Tadic's party over Kosovo and further European integration.

Kostunica and his Democratic Party of Serbia (DPS) believe the country should not join the EU until Union members recognise Serbia's sovereignty over Kosovo. Pristina's independence has so far been recognised by 20 of the 27 EU members.

According to opinion polls conduced by the Medium Gallup agency in late April, the Serbian Radical Party could win 91 of the 250 seats in parliament in the election Sunday (May 11th).

Tadic's Democrats are likely to get 88 seats, whereas Kostunica's party is expected to win 30.

The Socialist Party of Serbia, which also highlights sovereignty over Kosovo as a priority, could win about 16 seats, while the Liberal Democratic Party, which favors swift EU integration, hopes for 15. The remainder of the seats will probably go to parties representing ethnic minorities.

The formation of a new government could once again depend on Kostunica, who also played a crucial role after the past two election cycles. Analysts say that it is hard to believe that, after so much discord, Kostunica will choose the Democrats as partners again.

He, however, has not directly mentioned any future coalition partner, so Serbia is likely to see exhausting talks on forming a new cabinet. It may not be possible to form the new government without a third partner. Much could depend on the Socialists, who have been tight-lipped about a potential coalition.

One of the main campaign topics was the signing of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU. Tadic's Democrats welcomed the agreement as extremely important for Serbia, while Kostunica and the Radicals said they would annul it if they win a majority in parliament.

After the April 29th signing, Tadic described the SAA as a document that will open the way for economic progress and help in the struggle over Kosovo.

But Kostunica and the Radicals say it is "an unconstitutional and anti-state move", one which amounts to indirect recognition of Kosovo's independence.

Because of their shared position on the SAA, many analysts predict that Kostunica will team up with the Radicals. The prospect of such a coalition concerns the West, and pro-Western parties in Serbia. They worry that a DPS-Radical government would not only abolish the SAA but also halt co-operation with The Hague war crimes tribunal, leading Serbia into isolation from Europe.